https://delphigrc.org Latest research and analysis on Eurasian security, regional dynamics, and international relations from Delphi Global Research Center. en-us Wed, 01 Jul 2026 19:20:05 GMT https://delphigrc.org/main-logo.png https://delphigrc.org Copyright 2026 Delphi Global Research Center noreply@delphigrc.org (Delphi Global Research Center) noreply@delphigrc.org (Delphi Global Research Center) Research International Relations Eurasian Security https://delphigrc.org/research/the-soft-center-of-nato-s-eastern-flank https://delphigrc.org/research/the-soft-center-of-nato-s-eastern-flank Wed, 01 Jul 2026 19:20:05 GMT Are the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary up to the task of deterring Russian aggression in NATO's Eastern Flank? https://delphigrc.org/research/glavnoe-the-past-month-in-russia-june-2026 https://delphigrc.org/research/glavnoe-the-past-month-in-russia-june-2026 Wed, 01 Jul 2026 18:13:47 GMT Your monthly overview of major recent developments in Russian politics, economy, and society. June 2026 Issue. https://delphigrc.org/research/announcing-the-2026-statecraft-and-imagination-fellows https://delphigrc.org/research/announcing-the-2026-statecraft-and-imagination-fellows Tue, 30 Jun 2026 18:13:39 GMT Fellowship Program for Emerging Ukrainian Leaders At Delphi Global Research Center https://delphigrc.org/research/the-war-has-reached-moscow-and-russian-propaganda-seems-lost https://delphigrc.org/research/the-war-has-reached-moscow-and-russian-propaganda-seems-lost Tue, 30 Jun 2026 15:10:59 GMT History shows that Russia rarely changes its behavior out of goodwill. But it has repeatedly changed its calculations when confronted with sufficiently strong and persistent pressure. https://delphigrc.org/research/the-strategic-contest-behind-the-middle-corridor-digital-power-and-the-future-of-the-south-caucasus https://delphigrc.org/research/the-strategic-contest-behind-the-middle-corridor-digital-power-and-the-future-of-the-south-caucasus Mon, 22 Jun 2026 19:02:20 GMT American strategy in the South Caucasus and greater Eurasia must look beyond traditional infrastructure. Investing in ports and railways is no longer enough. The US must also invest in secure telecom networks, cloud storage, cybersecurity, digital governance, online finance, and artificial intelligence. https://delphigrc.org/research/borderlines-and-battlelines-assessing-regional-security-in-the-south-caucasus https://delphigrc.org/research/borderlines-and-battlelines-assessing-regional-security-in-the-south-caucasus Thu, 11 Jun 2026 20:09:17 GMT This multi-author report is a collaboration among experts from Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Germany, Romania, and the United States. https://delphigrc.org/research/the-weight-of-inheritance-post-soviet-institutional-and-operational-legacies-in-russian-warfighting https://delphigrc.org/research/the-weight-of-inheritance-post-soviet-institutional-and-operational-legacies-in-russian-warfighting Mon, 08 Jun 2026 12:42:45 GMT Why the Russian Military Fights the Way It Does https://delphigrc.org/research/geo-economics-of-russia-and-china-in-africa https://delphigrc.org/research/geo-economics-of-russia-and-china-in-africa Mon, 08 Jun 2026 12:17:54 GMT This report is part III of Delphi Global's ongoing report series on the Russia-China dynamic in Africa https://delphigrc.org/research/glavnoe-the-past-month-in-russia-may-2026 https://delphigrc.org/research/glavnoe-the-past-month-in-russia-may-2026 Mon, 01 Jun 2026 21:19:01 GMT Your monthly overview of major recent developments in Russian politics, economy, and society. May 2026 Issue. https://delphigrc.org/research/the-us-iran-war-and-the-future-of-tripp-in-the-south-caucasus https://delphigrc.org/research/the-us-iran-war-and-the-future-of-tripp-in-the-south-caucasus Thu, 28 May 2026 10:27:14 GMT Any long-term U.S. strategy toward Tehran must recognize that the stakes extend well beyond the Arab world or the Persian Gulf. They also encompass the geopolitical future of the South Caucasus and the broader contest over power, influence, and connectivity across Eurasia. https://delphigrc.org/research/crimea-and-the-dniester-from-foundation-to-action https://delphigrc.org/research/crimea-and-the-dniester-from-foundation-to-action Tue, 26 May 2026 22:56:11 GMT This is part IV of four-part series on historical perspectives on Crimea and the Dniester: What 120 contemporary factors and 2,500 years of historical evidence imply about combined deprivation. https://delphigrc.org/research/crimea-and-the-dniester-four-scenario-narratives-to-2035 https://delphigrc.org/research/crimea-and-the-dniester-four-scenario-narratives-to-2035 Tue, 26 May 2026 22:48:15 GMT This is part III of four-part series on historical perspectives on Crimea and the Dniester: What 120 contemporary factors and 2,500 years of historical evidence imply about combined deprivation. https://delphigrc.org/research/the-parade-in-moscow-to-be-or-not-to-be https://delphigrc.org/research/the-parade-in-moscow-to-be-or-not-to-be Tue, 26 May 2026 22:42:26 GMT A sharp analysis of how Russia’s Victory Day parade has evolved from a symbol of historical remembrance into a tool of ideological control and geopolitical messaging under Vladimir Putin. Ambassador Eitvydas Bajarūnas examines how the Kremlin’s growing reliance on World War II mythology reveals both the strengths and deepening insecurities of the Russian regime amid the war against Ukraine. https://delphigrc.org/research/china-and-russia-tech-partnerships-and-geopolitical-leverage-in-latin-america https://delphigrc.org/research/china-and-russia-tech-partnerships-and-geopolitical-leverage-in-latin-america Fri, 22 May 2026 15:34:09 GMT Latin America has become a central arena of technological and geopolitical competition between China, Russia, and the United States. China has dramatically expanded its influence through trade, infrastructure, telecom networks, and digital technologies, while Russia has pursued a more limited strategy focused on military cooperation, information operations, and authoritarian partnerships. https://delphigrc.org/research/crimea-and-the-dniester-region-the-reconfigured-world-2025-2075 https://delphigrc.org/research/crimea-and-the-dniester-region-the-reconfigured-world-2025-2075 Wed, 20 May 2026 14:42:18 GMT This is part II of four-part series on historical perspectives on Crimea and the Dniester. Geoeconomic, demographic, corridor, and technology vectors — and what they mean for the deprivation thesis. https://delphigrc.org/research/crimea-and-the-dniester-region-a-single-historical-system https://delphigrc.org/research/crimea-and-the-dniester-region-a-single-historical-system Mon, 11 May 2026 11:35:14 GMT This is part I of four-part series on historical perspectives on Crimea and the Dniester. What 2,500 years of evidence tells us about combined deprivation. https://delphigrc.org/research/comrades-in-ice-a-what-if-discussion-of-sino-russian-arctic-basing https://delphigrc.org/research/comrades-in-ice-a-what-if-discussion-of-sino-russian-arctic-basing Mon, 11 May 2026 10:51:14 GMT Is it possible for Russia and China to establish a joint base in the Arctic? https://delphigrc.org/research/the-viktoria-bonya-phenomenon-how-an-influencer-became-a-stress-test-for-the-kremlin-system https://delphigrc.org/research/the-viktoria-bonya-phenomenon-how-an-influencer-became-a-stress-test-for-the-kremlin-system Fri, 01 May 2026 20:36:26 GMT Russian social media influencer Viktoria Bonya’s unexpected appeal to Vladimir Putin revealed a new form of discontent emerging not from opposition circles, but from Russia’s apolitical mass audience. https://delphigrc.org/research/glavnoe-the-past-month-in-russia-april-2026 https://delphigrc.org/research/glavnoe-the-past-month-in-russia-april-2026 Tue, 28 Apr 2026 16:04:44 GMT Your monthly overview of major recent developments in Russian politics, economy, and society. April 2026 Issue. https://delphigrc.org/research/russia-is-not-collapsing-yet-but-we-should-prepare-for-the-moment-when-it-becomes-possible https://delphigrc.org/research/russia-is-not-collapsing-yet-but-we-should-prepare-for-the-moment-when-it-becomes-possible Tue, 14 Apr 2026 16:55:06 GMT In recent years, Russia has most often been viewed through the prism of the war in Ukraine. That is understandable, but this limited view of Russia can obscure important things happening there. The global noise contributes to this as well: US domestic politics, the increasingly transactional stance of Donald Trump, changes in Europe, rising tensions in the Middle East, and so on. All of this overshadows one essential question: What is actually happening inside Russia itself? https://delphigrc.org/research/the-strategic-crossroads-of-the-south-caucasus-shades-of-gray-of-iranian-influence-in-georgia https://delphigrc.org/research/the-strategic-crossroads-of-the-south-caucasus-shades-of-gray-of-iranian-influence-in-georgia Mon, 13 Apr 2026 17:41:55 GMT Why the West has Strategic Stakes in Restoring Georgian Democracy. https://delphigrc.org/research/ukraine-s-sea-denial-strategy-lessons-for-the-persian-gulf https://delphigrc.org/research/ukraine-s-sea-denial-strategy-lessons-for-the-persian-gulf Mon, 06 Apr 2026 19:36:03 GMT Russia’s and Ukraine’s battles in the Black Sea following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine will intrigue military historians for decades as they marked a major change in naval warfare. https://delphigrc.org/research/shaping-the-security-landscape-how-russia-and-china-approach-the-issue-of-security-in-africa https://delphigrc.org/research/shaping-the-security-landscape-how-russia-and-china-approach-the-issue-of-security-in-africa Mon, 06 Apr 2026 18:23:41 GMT China and Russia have increasingly been grouped together as revisionist powers interested and intent on expanding influence across Africa. Both challenge Western political influence, cultivate relationships with authoritarian governments, and present themselves as alternatives to Western partnership models. https://delphigrc.org/research/russia-s-arctic-lack-of-ground-forces-a-manageable-problem-for-now https://delphigrc.org/research/russia-s-arctic-lack-of-ground-forces-a-manageable-problem-for-now Thu, 02 Apr 2026 17:28:20 GMT Russia’s military planners probably want their counterparts in NATO countries to believe that Moscow is building significant ground force capacity in the Arctic both to deter attacks and to have more conventional military options in the event of war.  https://delphigrc.org/research/glavnoe-the-past-month-in-russia-march-2026 https://delphigrc.org/research/glavnoe-the-past-month-in-russia-march-2026 Fri, 27 Mar 2026 13:36:49 GMT Your monthly overview of major recent developments in Russian politics, economy, and society. March 2026 Issue. https://delphigrc.org/research/targeting-as-strategy-civilian-harm-in-ukraine-as-a-forward-indicator-of-russian-intent https://delphigrc.org/research/targeting-as-strategy-civilian-harm-in-ukraine-as-a-forward-indicator-of-russian-intent Wed, 18 Mar 2026 12:19:12 GMT This report explores Russia's use of war crimes as part of its strategy in Ukraine. It aims to understand what Russian civilian targeting behavior tells us about Moscow's strategic logic. https://delphigrc.org/research/the-us-50-billion-era-loan-to-ukraine-how-russia-s-frozen-assets-were-turned-into-ukraine-s-financial-bedrock https://delphigrc.org/research/the-us-50-billion-era-loan-to-ukraine-how-russia-s-frozen-assets-were-turned-into-ukraine-s-financial-bedrock Tue, 17 Mar 2026 11:12:52 GMT This report aims to describe a microcosm of the overarching economic war between Western states and the Russian Federation. https://delphigrc.org/research/what-we-should-worry-about-when-we-worry-about-the-arctic https://delphigrc.org/research/what-we-should-worry-about-when-we-worry-about-the-arctic Tue, 17 Mar 2026 10:36:02 GMT The US National Security Strategy, released in December 2025, contains around 10,000 words but none of them are “Arctic.” The strategy also omits references to similar words like polar or what NATO typically refers to as the High North. Nevertheless, it is increasingly difficult to engage with national security and defense professionals today when worries about threats and challenges emanating from the Arctic do not feature prominently. https://delphigrc.org/research/from-risk-premium-to-real-disruption-iran-hormuz-and-energy-prices https://delphigrc.org/research/from-risk-premium-to-real-disruption-iran-hormuz-and-energy-prices Tue, 10 Mar 2026 16:21:53 GMT The Strait of Hormuz is virtually closed. Tanker traffic has slowed sharply, vessels are pooling on both sides, and war risk insurance has become the binding constraint for physical trade. This is where a geopolitical story meets a market mechanics story. https://delphigrc.org/research/exiled-russian-philosopher-ivan-ilyin-is-really-putin-s-brain https://delphigrc.org/research/exiled-russian-philosopher-ivan-ilyin-is-really-putin-s-brain Thu, 05 Mar 2026 17:57:47 GMT What makes Vladimir Putin tick? Many Russian analysts focus on what he is going to do next, what his health is like, and who would seize power if he were incapacitated. Others opine about Putin’s desire for peace or war, the war crimes he committed during the occupation of Ukraine, or how he gets along with President Donald Trump. https://delphigrc.org/research/resilience-and-fragility-of-russian-domestic-order https://delphigrc.org/research/resilience-and-fragility-of-russian-domestic-order Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:36:56 GMT If war sustains legitimacy, what would peace mean for the regime? This article examines how Russia’s internal resilience architecture shapes its strategic behavior, and where its vulnerabilities lie. https://delphigrc.org/research/glavnoe-the-past-month-in-russia-february-2026 https://delphigrc.org/research/glavnoe-the-past-month-in-russia-february-2026 Fri, 27 Feb 2026 16:17:51 GMT Your monthly overview of major recent developments in Russian politics, economy, and society. February 2026 Issue. https://delphigrc.org/research/why-resilience-became-the-word-no-one-in-ukraine-likes-and-what-should-replace-it https://delphigrc.org/research/why-resilience-became-the-word-no-one-in-ukraine-likes-and-what-should-replace-it Wed, 25 Feb 2026 20:56:07 GMT In this article the author writes about the experience of Russia's war in Ukraine from her personal perspective. The views expressed in this article are author’s own. https://delphigrc.org/research/russia-and-china-in-africa-interests-influence-and-instruments-of-power https://delphigrc.org/research/russia-and-china-in-africa-interests-influence-and-instruments-of-power Thu, 19 Feb 2026 16:19:45 GMT Africa matters to both Russia and China now more than at any time in recent decades. For Russia to blunt isolation and profit from insecurity; for China to consolidate an alternative global order and protect long-term investments. https://delphigrc.org/research/importance-of-defense-industry-development-insights-from-finland-and-latvia https://delphigrc.org/research/importance-of-defense-industry-development-insights-from-finland-and-latvia Wed, 18 Feb 2026 23:08:51 GMT It is undeniable that the defense industries of most European states have seen rapid growth and development over the past four years. These changes are most evident in the states bordering Russia and Belarus—the Baltic states, Poland, and Finland. However, despite a shared history and geopolitical challenges since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, these states have pursued very different approaches to defense policy. https://delphigrc.org/research/russia-s-arctic-major-obstacles-challenge-moscow-s-vision-and-future-profitability https://delphigrc.org/research/russia-s-arctic-major-obstacles-challenge-moscow-s-vision-and-future-profitability Thu, 12 Feb 2026 17:08:07 GMT In attempting to persuade the United States to support Russia’s objectives in Ukraine, lift sanctions, and rebuild a bilateral relationship, Moscow is enticing the Trump administration with the lure of untapped resources of the Russian Arctic.  https://delphigrc.org/research/the-critical-infrastructure-gambit-how-the-us-is-securing-the-balkans https://delphigrc.org/research/the-critical-infrastructure-gambit-how-the-us-is-securing-the-balkans Tue, 03 Feb 2026 18:47:45 GMT The Western Balkans’ geographical proximity to Ukraine, coupled with its cost-effective labor force and existing logistics networks, positions the region as an ideal manufacturing hub for the Ukrainian war effort. https://delphigrc.org/research/glavnoe-the-past-month-in-russia https://delphigrc.org/research/glavnoe-the-past-month-in-russia Fri, 30 Jan 2026 16:57:46 GMT Your monthly overview of major recent developments in Russian politics, economy, and society. January 2026 Issue. https://delphigrc.org/research/greenland-and-u-s-arctic-security-what-s-really-at-risk https://delphigrc.org/research/greenland-and-u-s-arctic-security-what-s-really-at-risk Tue, 27 Jan 2026 15:07:37 GMT President Donald Trump and his acolytes have argued that the US needs to absorb the island of Greenland for its raw materials, to ensure US security, and to prevent aggressive powers like China and Russia from taking it first. https://delphigrc.org/research/the-kill-chain-comes-to-nato-a-fictional-crisis-with-real-lessons https://delphigrc.org/research/the-kill-chain-comes-to-nato-a-fictional-crisis-with-real-lessons Wed, 21 Jan 2026 15:30:03 GMT Breaking Russia’s kill chain requires making escalation ineffective rather than trying to manage it or wait it out. The aim is to ensure that each step of a hybrid campaign, up to and including controlled military escalation, produces strategic losses for Moscow instead of gains. This is where resilience and all domain defense become operational concepts that directly deny the Kremlin’s expectation that pressure and blackmail will eventually pay off. https://delphigrc.org/research/how-uzbekistan-s-plastics-gamble-offers-insights-into-the-country-and-region-s-future https://delphigrc.org/research/how-uzbekistan-s-plastics-gamble-offers-insights-into-the-country-and-region-s-future Wed, 21 Jan 2026 14:52:14 GMT As investments and technology continue to pour into deep processing gas, Uzbekistan is increasingly poised to be a regional leader in production capabilities. Watching how Tashkent navigates these challenges will reveal clues about the country’s direction for years to come. https://delphigrc.org/research/the-turkic-corridor-a-likely-new-force-in-the-eurasian-continent https://delphigrc.org/research/the-turkic-corridor-a-likely-new-force-in-the-eurasian-continent Tue, 20 Jan 2026 11:26:48 GMT On November 12, 2021, a group of Turkic states that had been meeting regularly for 30 years reorganized itself into the Organization of Turkic States (OTS). Three months later, Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. https://delphigrc.org/research/four-years-on-still-far-from-peace-in-ukraine https://delphigrc.org/research/four-years-on-still-far-from-peace-in-ukraine Wed, 14 Jan 2026 23:53:48 GMT Despite the momentum gained at the end of 2025 in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, driven by President Donald Trump, there is no sign of a compromise acceptable to both sides. https://delphigrc.org/research/swaggering-toward-sicily-american-hubris-under-trump-invites-catastrophe https://delphigrc.org/research/swaggering-toward-sicily-american-hubris-under-trump-invites-catastrophe Mon, 12 Jan 2026 18:45:53 GMT Donald Trump and those around him are drunk on the elixir of American military power; it is only a matter of time before they plunge the US - and the world - into a catastrophe. https://delphigrc.org/research/a-movie-we-ve-seen-before-russia-s-pitch-for-africa https://delphigrc.org/research/a-movie-we-ve-seen-before-russia-s-pitch-for-africa Mon, 12 Jan 2026 18:13:31 GMT It came as no surprise last month to learn that the Russian Federation was luring able-bodied Africans to come, fight, and die at the front in Ukraine. Duped by promises of training and professional advancement, young Africans grab for the few available life rafts, even when chimerical. https://delphigrc.org/research/donald-trump-ukraine-and-european-security-a-second-munich https://delphigrc.org/research/donald-trump-ukraine-and-european-security-a-second-munich Wed, 07 Jan 2026 05:00:00 GMT By the end of 2025, it became clear that the Trump administration is prepared to sacrifice both Ukraine and Transatlanticism to the quest for better ties with Moscow.  President Trump’s recent interview with Politico and the administration’s National Security Strategy espouse a view of a Europe where leaders are weak, societies are decadent and at risk of “civilizational erasure,” and values must be resisted by Washington along with far-right European parties. https://delphigrc.org/research/lessons-from-russia-s-shahed-fleets-for-us-long-range-drones-and-air-defenses https://delphigrc.org/research/lessons-from-russia-s-shahed-fleets-for-us-long-range-drones-and-air-defenses Wed, 07 Jan 2026 05:00:00 GMT When a flock of Shaheds crossed the border into Poland on Sept. 10, 2025, NATO forces had two choices. The first was to send up NATO-supplied F-16 fighters armed with $500,000 apiece Sidewinder air-to-air missiles. The second was to ignore the Russian drones and pretend nothing was wrong — the choice that Romania made in response to a similar Russian incursion days later. https://delphigrc.org/research/managing-the-transatlantic-trade-and-investment-relationship https://delphigrc.org/research/managing-the-transatlantic-trade-and-investment-relationship Wed, 07 Jan 2026 05:00:00 GMT The second Trump administration has rapidly upended US–EU economic relations, replacing decades of low tariffs and open investment with sweeping protectionism driven by President Trump’s long-standing zero-sum, mercantilist worldview. Although Europe initially hoped for negotiated, reciprocal liberalization, it instead accepted a highly unbalanced arrangement largely because its dependence on US security guarantees constrained its ability to retaliate. https://delphigrc.org/research/lithuania-and-trump-2-0-the-economic-dimension https://delphigrc.org/research/lithuania-and-trump-2-0-the-economic-dimension Mon, 24 Nov 2025 20:44:03 GMT Lithuania passed the test posed by the first Trump administration with flying colors. At a time when most European allies were rattled by the president’s brusque style and criticisms of European free-riding, Lithuania more than doubled its defense spending between President Trump’s election in 2016 and his departure from office in 2021. https://delphigrc.org/research/the-deep-state-theory-from-russia-s-propaganda-playbook-to-georgia-s-political-narrative https://delphigrc.org/research/the-deep-state-theory-from-russia-s-propaganda-playbook-to-georgia-s-political-narrative Fri, 14 Nov 2025 20:56:10 GMT The term "Deep State" in the Russian context describes a purported shadow global governing structure that is believed to have an impact on international affairs, including US and EU decision-making. Russia uses this narrative to justify its own geopolitical goals, sow discord within pro-Western cultures, and undermine confidence in democratic governance both at home and in targeted states.