What We Get Wrong About Russia
Every US President since the collapse of the Soviet Union has come into office believing he can fix the US-Russia relationship and all have failed. There is a simple reason for this: the US-Russia relationship is driven far less by the identities of the two presidents, and far more by longer-term, historical-structural factors, than most US leaders understand. Put simply, the US and Russia have fundamentally different models of how the world works. If this remains to be the case, Russia will continue to be a problem for the US – if not an outright threat – and the US will be the same for Russia.
Sino-Russian Relations: Unlimited Partnership or Hierarchical Friendship?
In recent years, Russia and China have cultivated the image of a powerful anti-Western relationship. They have repeatedly emphasized their “No Limits” partnership and common opposition to what they describe as Western hegemony. Nevertheless, beneath the surface of the diplomatic pleasantries, joint military exercises, and staged leadership summits lie deep incompatibilities and increasingly widening contradictions in several domains- territorial, geopolitical, economic, technological, and military. These historical fractures and grievances challenge the sustainability of their alliance while revealing their underlying rivalry.
Russia’s Western Aggression Pathways: Baltic or Danube Corridor?
The brief assesses Russia’s strategic options for continued westward aggression, concluding that the Danube Mouth axis represents the most rewarding, probable, and operationally realistic path. Since 2022, the US has strengthened its security posture in Romania, recognizing the region's strategic vulnerability, while the EU maintains its conflict-averse posture, emphasizing negotiation over deterrence.
Two Wars, Countless Consequences
Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine and Hamas’ 2023 attack on Israel were brutal and unprovoked acts of aggression. Both Ukraine and Israel fought back hard, and the US rightly backed both Kyiv and Tel Aviv with diplomatic, economic, and most importantly military support. But as the wars unfolded a divergence in their trajectories became apparent, as did a divergence in the US approach to them. Put bluntly, US policy toward the wars in Europe and the Middle East could make war crimes and nuclear blackmail more common, to the detriment of US national security and global stability.